How would a no-deal Brexit play out? Very, very badly.
- Political Editor
- Aug 3, 2018
- 5 min read
Friday, 29th March 2019: The weeks leading up to Brexit deadline day have been fraught with anticipation and last-minute planning. Nobody expected a no-deal situation, so as the date neared and the negotiating teams in Brussels appeared no near to reaching a last-minute compromise, world financial markets begin to panic slightly. On Monday, global stock markets experienced a short but intense panic, only slowed when the United States agreed to begin preliminary trade talks with Britain.
On Friday morning, good-luck messages flood Twitter from right-wingers around the world including from President Donald Trump, which causes a huge debacle when he claims he invented the word 'Brexit'. At 9pm, 'Countdown to Brexit' begins on BBC1, fronted by an all-star team of David Dimbleby, Laura Kuenssberg, Andrew Neil and Jeremy Vine. A rival show on ITV; 'The Great Brexit Deadline Show', presented by Tom Bradby, scores a coup when Nigel Farage appears by video link from Essex to pronounce the 'death of communist Europe' in a semi-drunken rant. As the clocks strike 11, crowds gathered in Hyde Park, Trafalgar Square and outside Buckingham Palace send up a huge cheer, while across the world, the pound slumps in the still-open stock exchanges in the western United States.
Saturday and Sunday, 30th and 31st March 2019: The weekend feels strangely quiet. Apart from a medium-sized demonstration in central London on Saturday morning, Britain hangs on. Airlines cancel all flights to Europe as there are no rules in place to govern air traffic to and from the continent. The government organises charter flights from cities just outside the EU to help stranded travellers get home. Customs checks are immediately introduced at border ports, and last minute preparations by the Home Office and HMRC mean that these go fairly smoothly. Reports of a severe backlog emerging in Dover are reported on Sunday night's news programmes and a sombre interview with Bank of England Governor Mark Carney sets the stage for the week to come.
Monday, 1st April 2019: Stock markets crash as they open, one by one around the world. The pound continues it's fall to an all-time low as capital flight intensifies. At around 10:30am, the new computer system used for customs at border ports crashes, intensifying the already-bad queues. Some blame Kremlin-linked groups for hacking the network. Prime Minister Theresa May calls a meeting of the Cabinet COBRA committee, where they issue pleas against all non-essential travel to try and rectify the situation.
Tuesday, 2nd April 2019: There is a severe run on commercial banks. The government stands firm in it's refusal to offer a bail-out. Supermarkets shut early as huge crowds form outside for food, but some frantic shoppers panic and break in, causing food riots at supermarkets around the country. During the evening, large crowds gather in cities around the country. As night falls, Britain descends into anarchy as the worst riots in living memory occur. The authorities abandon large parts of cities to the violence to protect key areas. The Prime Minister and Cabinet evacuate London to the safety of an undisclosed military base.
Wednesday, 3rd April 2019: By the morning, news reports emerge of many fatalities during the night. Theresa May resigns as Prime Minister in a live broadcast at just after 8am. In her last act as premier, she invokes the a cabinet procedure allowing for a vote among ministers to determine the next leader. At 10 o'clock, Jeremy Hunt is confirmed as the new PM. Hunt immediately invokes powers under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, deploying thousands of troops on the streets of major towns and cities. He also announces a 9pm curfew, the creation of military courts to carry out quick trials on suspected rioters, and a strict food rationing system.
Thursday, 4th April 2019: Jeremy Hunt formally requests assistance from the United States in the early hours of the morning. US troops are flown in and stationed in key points. The country is in a stable, but critical condition. Motorways are empty and the rail network is shut down. The army delivers food to distribution centres where it is rationed out among the population. Vast swathes of the nation are without power. The BBC suspends all television services, maintaining a national radio service using the local radio network. The army forcibly requisition produce from farms, resulting in multiple cases of violence.
Friday, 5th April 2019: It is revealed that the government evacuated itself, along with the royal family, to America earlier in the week, where it has continued to rule from a safe distance. This news results in widespread mutinies among troops, and further riots around the country. Protesters take control of government buildings in London. In Scotland, the former devolved government, led by Nicola Sturgeon, seizes control and declares independence. US troops put this rebellion down after storming Holyrood and taking Sturgeon and her ministers prisoner. Opposition leaders, who have been quiet since the violence began, proclaim a national unity provisional government, with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. He convenes the 400 or so MPs that have not fled the country and delivers a speech heard by millions of people around the country. He urges people to be united in the face of crisis and his words are well-accepted. Stock markets stabilise.
Saturday and Sunday, 6th and 7th April 2019: Jeremy Corbyn spends the weekend negotiating a provisional deal with the European Union, which restores vital supply chains to Britain.
W/B 8th April 2019: The nation goes back to work. Confidence in the new government restores the value of currency and supermarkets restock. Parliament votes to adopt a constitutional document replacing the monarchy with an elected ceremonial presidency and the House of Lords with an elected Senate. A general election is scheduled for Thursday 3rd October.
August 2019: Parliament is dissolved on Thursday 29th and the election campaign begins in earnest. Donald Trump is impeached for his role in the unrest and hiding the British government. Extradition procedures are begun against Jeremy Hunt and his former cabinet.
September 2019: The former Prime Minister is returned to Britain, landing at Gatwick Airport on the 12th September. He is immediately taken under police protection and indicted to stand trial for using powers that weren't available to him.
October 2019: Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party wins an outright majority of 409 seats with a progressive manifesto. The Liberal Democrats become the official opposition with 187 seats. The Conservative Party led by backbencher John Penrose suffer their worst defeat, having failed to stand candidates in hundreds of seats, only win 32.
This is an absolute worst-case scenario. Nevertheless, let's see what happens...

Comments